the tanker market, says Poten & Partners in their latest Tanker Opinions. Poten claims that the last time the Suezmax sector experienced a significant number of of Suezmax tankers ordered was some five years ago. The current fleet contains 52 vessels (representing 12% of the total) that were ordered between December 2009 and June 2010. In hindsight, the timing of these orders was less than ideal. Poten & Partners ask if the situation is different today.
As is usually the case, there are a number of different factors to consider, says Poten. Among the most important: 1. What is the outlook for this segment? 2. Where are Suezmax newbuilding prices from a historical perspective and relative to secondhand prices? Despite the recent jitters in the oil markets and some concern about economic growth in China and Europe, the general consensus about the outlook for the tanker market remains cautiously optimistic, Poten says.
According to the Poten’s Tanker Opinions, the Suezmax segment has adjusted well to the changes in global trade flows as a result of the shale oil boom in the United States. While fixtures from West Africa to the U.S. Atlantic Coast have dropped precipitously in recent years, movements to North West Europe, the Mediterranean and India have picked up.
The largest boost for Suezmax employment has been the growth in liftings from the Arabian Gulf. Based on activity to date, reported Suezmax fixtures ex-Arabian Gulf could reach 600 in 2014, compared to 333 reported fixtures in 2012 and 215 in 2010, Poten says. Another bright spot for Suezmaxes has been the growth in long-haul fuel oil movements from the Atlantic to the Pacific, Poten claims.
The number of reported Suezmax fuel oil fixtures has tripled since 2010. Barring a collapse in worldwide oil demand, Suezmax employment should remain fairly healthy in the coming years, projects Poten.
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